You Can Win From Anywhere
When it comes to trends, there aren’t too many to go on, and it is usually that the best horse on the day wins. Some people might think a wide draw is a concern, but that’s not true, as you can win from anywhere. The last two winners were drawn high in Stall 24 and Stall 20, and in 2018 Stall 2 won, so it really isn’t that important. Also, the horses who won were quite prominent in the betting, with all the winners being 10/1 or shorter since 2020.
Looks Like The Ebor Has Been The Plan
The betting this year has Epic Poet leading the market at 15/2. It looks like this season has been campaigned around this race, and he was last seen running on well to finish fifth in the John Smith at this venue last month. That race was over 1m2f, and it looks like he’ll be suited by going back up in distance, as he ran well over 1m4f at Royal Ascot when he finished second in the Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes. Off a mark of a 100, he could be well handicapped, but at the prices, I think we can do a little bit better.
O’Brien Not The Master In Handicaps
The Irish have had a good record in this race in recent years and merit respect. It looks like Queenstown could be the best of them for Aidan O’Brien in 2024. He has been keeping company with Kyprios, who’s gone on to win two of the biggest staying races of the Flat season, with the Ascot Gold Cup and Goodwood Cup. On paper, he looks like he could well-handicapped off a mark of 100, but I have my doubts. Though Aidan O’Brien is the master trainer, he isn’t known for his handicap winners, and he’s only trained 10 UK handicap winners. Moreover, I think the four-year-old gelding is a bit slow, and I think their others make more appeal.
Mullins Again?
Belloccio is interesting for last year’s winning trainer, Willie Mullins. He was last seen winning the Copper Horse handicap at Royal Ascot, staying on well in the closing stages. We’ve always known he’s a classy Flat horse since he was with David Menuisier, but most of his form was on the all-weather, so it was good to see him translate it to turf. The only concern I have for him is that he’s been to York twice and been well-beaten on both starts. York is a horses for courses track, in my opinion, so he’s not making my shortlist.
Horses For Courses
One horse who very much does have course form is Phantom Flight for George Scott. When he was previously trained by James Horton, he bolted up at this meeting in 2022, winning by 5 lengths. However, that was over 1m2f, and which is half a mile shorter, so he would need to prove he stays this far. This season he has done well for connections, and two starts ago he won at Newbury. I think he’s worth a go at this kind of trip, as he was keeping on at Goodwood last time out. If the ground is quick, then he’d definitely have a chance at 20/1.
Aimeric Loves A Handicap
When it comes to big staying handicaps, Roger Varian has a good record, and I quite like the chances of Aimeric if he were to run here. The five-year-old gelding progressed well over the last couple of years, and he’s not been disgraced this season. His last few runs have come in Listed and Group company, where he’s probably found life a little hot. However, he’s won his last two starts in handicaps, and coming back into these waters might see him in a better light. The key to him, like several who might run in this race, is quick ground, but at 33/1, I’m willing to chance him.
My Mate Mozzie Can Make His Mark
There is one more horse that interests me for this race, and that is My Mate Mozzie for Gavin Cromwell. He’s been around for a while, but he has been a great horse for his connections over Flat and Jumps. The eight-year-old gelding was last seen finishing third in the Galway Hurdle, but the time before that he finished third behind Bellocio at Royal Ascot, suggesting that he’s in top form. He’s also a horse who is not ground dependent and seems to handle any conditions. Off a mark of 98, I can see him being competitive, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he were to win a race of this nature.
Ebor Handicap Shortlist
My Mate Mozzie (16/1)
Phantom Flight (20/1)
Aimeric (33/1)
