Europe’s Best Flat Race
To win the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, you need a blend of speed and stamina. It really is the ultimate test for the middle-distance horse. Until recently, the UK had a fantastic record in the race, but since 2019, four of the last five winners have come from the continent.
Sotsie Leads The Way
When it comes to this year’s renewal, the current favourite for the race is Sotsie for Andre Fabre. It’s fair to say that the son of Sea The Stars was a good winner of the Prix Neil the last time we saw him, which is often seen as the French trial for this race. Prior to that, he beat Illinois in the Group 1 Grand Prix de Paris, so he’s clearly shown a high level of ability. Fabre is the leading trainer in the race with eight wins, so Sotsie needs to be respected. My only doubt is if he’d want really testing ground, which we can get in October, as he did get turned over in the Prix Du Jockey Club at Chantilly on a heavy surface. Therefore, I just have to take him on.
Lacking Stamina
Next in the betting is Look De Vega, who got turned over by Sostie in the Prix Neil last weekend. Before that run, he had been the favourite for the Arc and had won all three of his career starts. I think that 1m4f really stretches his stamina, and the 1m2f trip is his ideal distance. For that reason, he can’t be on my shortlist.
Ballydoyle’s Main Hope
Los Angeles is the shortest priced British or Irish horse-trained horse in the betting at 8/1. Aidan O’Brien’s three-year-old colt has shown a high level of ability this season, which included a win in the Irish Derby. The son of Camelot was last seen running in the Irish Champion Stakes, finishing in a respectable fourth place. That race was run over 1m2f, which was probably on the sharp side for him, so that should be noted. On the other hand, connections said that was his prep run for the Arc, which should leave him spot on for Longchamp. Though he has a lot going for him, I’m always keen to take on Ballydoyle horses in the Arc. Aidan O’Brien has only won the race twice in his career, and his last winner came in 2016 with Found. Los Angeles might run well, but he’s not my idea of the winner.
Bluestocking Keeps Blooming
The one horse who makes a lot of appeal to me is Bluestocking for Ralph Beckett. She’s progressed very well as a four-year-old this season, and she was last seen winning the Prix de Vermeille last weekend, wearing first-time cheekpieces. Though that was against her own sex, she has proven that she can take on the boys. Moreover, whatever the conditions will be, she’ll handle them, including very soft ground. Fillies have a good recent record in the Arc with Enable and Alpinista, so don’t be surprised if Bluestocking can add her name to the roll of honour.
Don’t Underestimate The Germans
Elsewhere there is one horse that I am keen to keep on side, and that is Fantastic Moon. The four-year-old colt might be a touch overlooked in the market as he’s trained in Germany; however, that fact should not be underestimated. That’s because in 2021 Torquator Tasso won the race at 80/1, and German horses are always overpriced to British punters.
If you look at Fantastic Moon’s career, then you’ll see he’s been a great horse for Frau Steinberg. The four-year-old gelding was last seen winning the Group 1 Grosser Preis von Baden, and he looked in good as form as ever.
Last year he actually ran in the Arc and finished eleventh. Though he was beaten, he had excuses as he was drawn wide and could never settle. Moreover, if you stop the replay as they came into the home straight, he was going as well as anything.
The time before that run he had actually won at Paris Longchamp when he landed the Prix Neil, so the track isn’t an issue. I just think the key to him is good ground, which it was for him last September. If the weather can stay dry, then he’d have a good chance at 33/1.
Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe 2024 Shortlist
Bluestocking EW (25/1)
Fantastic Moon EW (33/1)
