Dinoblue is too short
The first race I was looking at was the Mares’ Chase, where Dinoblue is currently the EVS favourite. There’s no debate that she’s a class mare, but for me, she’s way too short at the top of the betting and she’s not my idea of a Festival banker. All of her form has come over 2m, and there has to be some concern about her getting the 2m4f trip. Moreover, she has to carry a 5lb penalty, which, if the ground is soft, could play a factor.
Looks at the novice chasers in the Mares’
Despite there only being three renewals of the Mares’ Chase, two of the three winners were novices, and that’s the route I’m going here with Carole’s Pass for Amy Murphy. Clearly, she’s got plenty to find at the ratings, but she has been improving with each of her runs. She first caught my eye when she finished third in a Listed Mares’ Chase at Doncaster in December behind Limerick Lace. After that, she ran in another Listed race at Huntingdon, where she was unseated through no fault of her own when still going as well as any, and then the last time we saw her, she bolted up at Exeter over 3m, taking on some decent mares.
If it did become a test of stamina over the trip, that would definitely be up her street and if some of the market leaders do underperform, I can see her being there to pounce, so the 20/1 with Rhino looks a little bit big.
Forward Plan still on the up
When it comes to looking at the handicaps, Anthony Honeyball looks to have a nice chance with Forward Plan in the Kim Muir, which is the horse’s only entry at the Cheltenham Festival. It’s more than fair to say that the eight-year-old gelding has been in the form of his life in recent months, and he still might not be done with yet. The last time we saw him, he flew home to take a Grade 3 handicap at Kempton, which suggests the extra couple of furlongs will really suit him.
I think the handicapper has been quite kind, only raising him 3lb and I can see him having a few more pounds up his sleeve. Anthony Honeyball also had a good association with top amateur Will Biddick over the years, and I could see him taking the ride here, as it’s Forward Plan’s only entry at the Cheltenham Festival.
He’s currently 16/1 with Rhino, and once the race cuts up, I can see him possibly going off a single-figure price, so I’m happy to take a chance with him now each way.
So that’s it for my ante-post Cheltenham column until the Festival begins next week. Make sure you stay tuned throughout Cheltenham week, as I will be giving daily previews with selections and thoughts in every race!
Ante-post Tips This Week
Forward Plan 16/1 EW – Kim Muir
Carole’s Pass 20/1 EW – Mares’ Chase
