The feature race of the day is the Group 1 Fillies’ Mile at Newmarket, where we could see some Classic clues for next year.
1.30 York – Look Back Smiling EW
I’ve been a fan of this horse this season, and I don’t think he’s without a chance here. The last time we saw him, he finished seventh in the Cambridgeshire Handicap at Newmarket, which was a great effort. The key to him is soft ground, and he’s going to get that here. Moreover, he’s on a good mark, as he came second off this rating at Thirsk back in May. With a fair draw in Stall 5, I can see him being in or around the frame.
1.47 Newmarket – Midnight Thunder (Win)
Though he needs to prove himself at this level, I’ve been impressed with Midnight Thunder on his last two starts. The last time we saw him, he bolted up at Yarmouth with ease in the ground, and he wasn’t stopping at the line. Saeed Bin Suroor has had a quiet year, but there have been signs his horses are in better form, and this might be his best juvenile. I think over this kind of trip he could be very exciting, and I have to keep him on side here.
2.05 York – Pellitory EW
This race is wide open, but I am just going to go for Pellitory each-way for James Owen. He’s been running at a very consistent level and was just touched off in a hot nursery at Doncaster last month. Before that, he won with a bit of cut at Yarmouth, so there is hope he’ll handle the testing conditions. He’s also dropping back to 7f, which shouldn’t be a problem. In a competitive race, he looks to have a good each-way chance.
2.25 Newmarket – First Instinct EW
First Instinct is a filly we’ve not gotten to the bottom of yet. She’s undefeated after two runs, but each time, she’s run on well inside the final furlong on both occasions. Her last run saw her finish well at Haydock on easy ground, beating a useful filly of Richard Fahey’s, who has subsequently boosted the form. The daughter of Bated Breath does need to improve if she’s going to win at this level, but I am happy enough to take the chance.
2.40 York – Who’s Glen (Win)
Who’s Glen absolutely dotted up when scoring in testing ground at Chester last month. Some people might say that was a fluke, but I don’t think so. If you look at his pedigree, he comes from a classy family. His dam Who’s Steph was a Group 3 winner for Ger Lyons, and she handled soft conditions. I just think York will be a track that suits this son of Gleneagles, and I can see him going very close.
3.00 Newmarket – Ten Bob Tony EW
This is a good race, but I like Ten Bob Tony. He seems like the Rowley Mile at Newmarket, and he won well here back at the Craven Meeting in April. On his last run he ran a good race in a Group 3 at Longchamp on soft ground and was just denied late on. I think a return to this track will really suit him, and the fact he’s proven should be marked up as Newmarket is a quirky course. With a fair draw in Stall 6, he’s one of my stronger fancies of the day.
3.15 Chepstow – Flying Fortune (Win)
I don’t think this is a good renewal of the Persian War, and I think Flying Fortune is the horse who has the best form in the book. She’s been very progressive throughout the summer, winning her last three races, which included a decent handicap hurdle at Worcester last time out. She also has some strong form behind Gale Mahler, who went on to win a Listed Novice Hurdle at Galway. Moreover, she’ll get the 7lb mares allowance here, which will count for a lot. I think she has a lot going for her.
3.35 Newmarket – Desert Flower (Win)
Desert Flower should be too good for her rivals here. She comes into this undefeated after winning all three of her career starts, which included an impressive victory in the Group 2 May Hill Stakes at Doncaster last month. That has often been a well-treaded path to winning this race, and I think her form is miles better than most of these. Also, she holds her main market rival January on that Doncaster run, and I don’t think she’ll reverse the form here.
3.50 Chepstow – Good Boy Bobby (Win)
Good Boy Bobby won this race last year at Chepstow, and I think he can win it again this year. His trainer, Nigel Twiston-Davies, is having a great time of it. At the time of writing, is operating at a 38% strike rate. Moreover, this son of Flemensfirth goes well fresh, having won this race first time out last year, so fitness shouldn’t be an issue. He’s also only 1lb higher than when he won last year, so he’s on a fair mark. I think he’ll put up a very good defence, and he’s the one they’ve got to beat.
4.10 Newmarket – Sun God EW
Maybe this could be the day for Sun God to get his head in front. He’s run in some good races this year without winning. We last saw him run in the Melrose Handicap at the Ebor Festival at York, where he finished fifth. The form of that race has worked out well, and he’s dropping back in trip to 1m4f, which should help. Furthermore, he likes the Rowley Mile at Newmarket after finishing a very close second here back in May behind Black Run, who rated 10lb higher. With David Egan booked for the ride, I think he’s got a good chance of being in at least the places.
Bet Of The Day: 4.10 Newmarket – Sun God EW