1.15 Ayr – Aragorn Castle EW
Andrew Balding has been in flying form in recent weeks, and I think he has a good chance in the opener at Ayr with Aragorn Castle. The son of Territories has been progressing well all season, and the last time we saw him, he finished sixth at York. Though he finished behind a few rivals, I think that performance can be marked up. That day he fared best of those who had a double-figure draw. Also the leaders had first run on him, where the pace was holding up. Prior to that, he had been a good winner at Hamilton earlier in the season in a hot race. Moreover, the booking of PJ McDonald is interesting, as he’s got a 40% strike rate for Andrew Balding this season. With a good draw in Stall 3, he’s one of my strongest fancies of the day.
1.50 Ayr – Phantom Flight (Win)
I didn’t have a strong opinion in this race, but my preference would be for Phantom Flight. The five-year-old gelding has improved rapidly for George Scott this season, running well in some big races. The last time we saw him, he finished second in a Group 3 at York. That he had to give See The Fire 10lbs, which was a great effort. He’s normally a horse who likes to be ridden handy and make the running, so connections will be pleased to see he’s got a nice draw in Stall 4. Furthermore, it’s been good to be on the pace at Ayr this week. Therefore the course might just play to his strengths.
2.25 Ayr – Londoner EW
I’m sure Jim Goldie has had a plan for Londoner, and this might have been it. I’ve been following him for a while, as I think he can win a race of this nature. The four-year-old gelding has been tried over all sorts of trips this season, but dropping down to 6f should suit. If you look at his pedigree, then he’s bred to be a sprinter, as his dam was a Group 1 winner over 5f. This time he tries first-time cheekpieces might just sharpen him up. He’s a big double-figure price, but I wouldn’t be surprised if this was his day.
3.00 Ayr – Stormy Impact EW
Stormy Impact may be a maiden, but she’s not done much wrong. The daughter of Study Of Man has finished second on all three of her career starts to date but has just been beaten in the final strides. Last time out, she was caught on the line at Haydock by a smart filly trained by William Haggas, who could be an exciting horse moving forward. Also that day she lost a shoe, so that should also be noted. I just think 6f is her trip, and her trainer, Richard Fahey, has a good record in this race, winning it twice since 2020. I think she’ll step forward here and break her maiden tag in style.
3.35 Ayr – Mostabshir EW
I was with Mostabshir last time out when he ran a solid race to finish fourth in the Stewards Cup at Glorious Goodwood. The son of Dark Angel has always been a high-class horse, who has shown a lot of speed. He just hasn’t been as effective over 7f, and a mile. as connections would have hoped I just think over 6f, he’s got a lot more to offer, and it’s interesting to see connections persevere with over this distance. Off a mark of 100, I think he’s fairly treated, and he’s got a fair draw in Stall 15. They are likely to go hard and fast, and I can see him picking up the pieces and coming with a late run.
1.30 Newbury – No Half Measures EW
This is an open race, but I thought No Half Measures was interesting, especially with the jockey booking of Ryan Moore. The last time he rode him, he won on him at the July Festival at Newmarket. Since that run the three-year-old colt has gone on to win his Listed company in France, so he’s clearly up to this level. Last time out he finished 6th in a Group 3 at Paris Longchamp where he didn’t get the clearest of runs, so you can forgive him that. With the weight-for-age allowance and a good draw towards the stands side rail, I can see him being in the mix.
2.05 Newbury – Waxing Gibbons (Win)
Waxing Gibbons ran a cracker when she just lost by a neck at Haydock a couple of weeks ago. As a result of that performance, the handicapper has raised 5lb, but I think there could be more to come from her. The daughter of Sea The Moon hasn’t finished outside of the first two on her last four starts, and she just keeps on improving for David Menuisier. I can see possibly developing into a black-type filly later this autumn. Moreover, coming back to Newbury should suit her, as she’s won here before. She just seems to have a lot in her favour this weekend.
2.40 Newbury – Whip Cracker EW
I don’t have a strong opinion in this race, but I’m just edging towards Whip Cracker. I thought this horse was going to go places this season, but his three-year-old campaign has stalled a little bit. We’ve not seen him since Royal Ascot, and he comes back after a gelding operation. Earlier this season, he had run a good race at Newmarket, where he finished second to Jayarebe. Off his mark of 99, he could be very handicapped. I also think he has untapped potential over 1m2f, and the booking of Ryan Moore is a positive.
3.15 Newbury – Defence Minister EW
I think Defence Minister is a horse we’ve not seen the best of yet. The last time we saw him, he won at Haydock under a penalty. The thing that impressed me was how he hit the line that day. In time, I think he’ll get further than 6f and he could possibly develop into a 2,000 Guineas horse. He seems to be pretty versatile groundwise, so the conditions shouldn’t be a problem. I suspect we might be seeing a star in the making.
Bet Of The Day: 1.15 Ayr – Aragorn Castle EW