The biggest market mover in recent days has been Tullyhill for the Supreme after he won the Listed Sheila Bourke Novice Hurdle at Punchestown on Sunday. He was originally 10/1 before the race, and he now finds himself half the price with Rhino, who are currently offering 5/1. I think that is a bit of an overreaction, and he would need to step up again. He got a soft lead, and he wasn’t very fluent over his hurdles. The son of Martaline clearly has an engine, but he isn’t my idea of the winner.
The problem is, where is Willie Mullins going to run Ballyburn, the Supreme, or the Baring Bingham? He’s 6/5 for the Supreme and 7/4 for the Baring Bingham. We probably won’t know until the declarations are made, but I think wherever he runs, he’ll be hard to beat.
One on my shortlist who is a big price for the Supreme is Tellherthename. His trainer, Ben Pauling, holds him in very high regard, and he’s looked very impressive when scoring on two occasions at Huntingdon this season. Connections did step him up in grade for the Grade 1 Formby Novices’ Hurdle at Aintree in December. He was strong in the market that day, but he couldn’t deliver on expectations as he was reported to have lost his action, so the run can be forgiven.
Ben Pauling is a yard that is really going places, and I think he has the best crop of young National Hunt horses in the UK. Pauling also knows what it takes to win a novice hurdle at Cheltenham Festival, as he won the Baring Bingham with Willoughby Court in 2017, who looks a similar type to Tellherthename. The five-year-old gelding is 20/1 for the Supreme, and I could see him being a single-figure price on the day, so I’m happy to advertise him at his current odds.
Moving on to novice chasers, a horse that I was pleased with at the weekend was Kilbeg King. I put him up in my ITV preview for the Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase at Ascot, and he ran a solid race only to be edged out a neck second behind Henry’s Friend. In my preview, I mentioned that this could be a springboard to running in the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham, as his trainer, Anthony Honeyball, had previously gone down the same path with Ms Parfois. I think he looks every inch like a National Hunt Chase horse, as I think he’s a proper stayer who will appreciate the marathon trip.
When it comes to looking at his potential opposition, I think the market is being too kind to the Irish horses by trying to keep the likes of Embassy Gardens and Corbetts Cross on side. They haven’t achieved any more than Kilbeg King over fences, and it’s just because they’re trained by Willie Mullins and Emmet Mullins that the bookmakers aren’t giving any value away. I think the race is also likely to be cut short. In 2022, there were only six runners, so it’s worth grabbing those three places each way for Kilbeg King at 14/1.
One thing to look at this week will be the handicap entries, as they come out this week, and we’ll get more of an idea of where some horses will be going at the Festival. A horse that I’ll be keeping an eye on for handicaps is Roaring Legend for Olly Murphy.
I am going to Market Rasen, where he is due to run on Tuesday, and he looks to be the good thing on the card. The last time we saw him, he flew home to get second at Musselburgh in a Listed race, and he was the type that could improve in handicaps once he gets a mark. If the four-year-old gelding was to win well, I would be interested to see if he would run in the Boodles Juvenile Handicap at Cheltenham, as I think the track could really suit him. Moreover, Olly Murphy doesn’t send horses to the Festival unless he thinks they have a chance, so if he did run, that would definitely be a sign of intent.
That’s all for this week’s column. I’ll be back next week reviewing the weekend racing from Kempton, Newcastle and Chepstow.
Ante-post tips this week
Tellherthename 20/1 EW (Supreme)
Kilbeg King 14/1 EW (National Hunt Chase)
