Scheffler No Sure Thing
As usual, when it comes to the golf majors, Scottie Scheffler heads the market. There is no denying that he is undoubtedly the best golfer in the world right now, but you can take him on at the Open. Out of all the majors, it has been his weakest, and his best finish was a tie for eighth in 2021, and that is also his only Top 10 finish at the event. Maybe he just lacks the experience for links golf? At 9/2, I think he’s a bad price, and you may have to take him on.
McIlroy Must Win A Major Soon
The next place to go is Rory McIlroy. Every time I write one of these previews, I usually say the same thing, but I do think he’s the closest he’s been to winning a major for quite a while. In the last major, he probably should have beaten Bryson Dechambeau at the US Open, as he finished one shot behind in second place.
Since then, Rory has just played one event, the Scottish Open, where he competed well to finish in fourth place last week. He had chances to get close to the leaders, and he was in contention for most of the tournament. However, he just couldn’t quite get the putting going at the right time, which has probably been the biggest weakness in his game.
On the other hand, the Northern Irishman loves his links golf, and he won the Open Championship in 2014 at Royal Hoylake. If he can keep up the consistency of being there or thereabouts in one of these events, then one should eventually fall his way. Maybe this could be his week, and at 15/2, I’m willing to give him another chance.
Over 35’s Have An Excellent Record
In recent years, playing the week before at the Scottish Open has been a key trend, along with players aged 35 or over. One player who fits that bill is Adam Scott, who came mighty close to winning the famous claret jug in 2012.
After a spell in the wilderness, he has come back to form in 2024, and he played some great golf at the Scottish Open last week, only to be beaten by Robert MacIntrye.
The 43-year-old has an excellent record at the Open Championship, and he has only missed the cut once since 2010. If he could build on his recent effort at the Renaissance Golf Club last week, then I can see him in contention at 50/1.
Every year at the Open Championship, there are always a few players that come from left-field, and I’ve got my eye on a couple.
Search For Scramblers
The first of them is Victor Perez, who is currently priced up at 200/1. The Frenchman played quite well at the Scottish Open last week and finished in a tie for 10th place. Also, if you look at the statistics for Scrambling at last week’s event, you’ll see that Perez finished second.
Being high up on the scrambling stats has been a major positive when finding the winner of the Open Championship. Seven of the last ten winners had finished in the Top 10 of the Scrambling stats, so it’s something to consider seriously, and Perez fits the trend.
Furthermore, Perez seems to have a liking for links golf, despite playing a lot of his golf in the US. In 2019, he won the Dunhill Links Championship, and he moved to Dundee in 2017. The 31-year-old has only played at the Open twice in his career, but on both occasions, he made the cut. If he can get through the weekend, then it wouldn’t surprise me that he could feature high on the leaderboard.
Don’t Be Surprised To See Siem On The Move
Another player I want to keep on side at a huge price is Marcel Siem at 400/1. He had a good week on the scrambling stats at the Scottish Open last week, finishing fourth.
Moreover, the German has been in good form this year, and he won the Italian Open in a playoff back in June.
When it comes to his record at the Open Championship, he’s not fared too badly and made the last two cuts he played, where in 2021 he finished tied 15.
It would definitely take a career-best performance for him to feature, but his ability to get up and down the greens on a links course could be invaluable.
2024 Open Championship Shortlist
Rory McIlroy (15/2)
Adam Scott (50/1)
Victor Perez (200/1)
Marcel Siem (400/1)