Mattia Beluccia v Stan Wawrinka
It’s a case of the up-and-comer taking on the experience in this first-round match. I think the betting should be the other way around. Stan Wawrinka has been put in at 9/5 to win this race, which is the wrong price, and Mattia Beluccia is the odds-on favourite at 1/2.
The 2016 US Open champion progressed at Wimbledon and the French Open, showing that he still has the ability to compete at this level. His opponent Beluccia, on the other hand, has been playing at the Grand Slams this season but is still yet to progress past the opening rounds. I think Wawrinka will come out on top and put his experience to good use.
Selection: Stan Wawrinka To Win (9/5)
Jelena Ostapenko v Naomi Osaka
Again, I think the markets have it the wrong way around this match, as Naomi Osaka is the favourite to win at 4/6. The 26-year-old was clearly a very good player a few years ago, but the former World Number One has really struggled this year, and she’s not gotten past the second round at any of the three Grand Slams played in 2024.
Jelena Ostapenko, on the other hand, has had a good year, reaching the final of the Australian Open and the quarterfinals of Wimbledon. Furthermore, coming back to the US Open won’t phase her, as she reached the quarterfinals last year. At 23/20, she’s the value pick.
Selection: Jelena Ostapenko (23/20)
Gael Monfils v Diego Schartzman
This should be a closer match than the betting suggests. When it comes to their head-to-head record, Schartzman has the better record with coming out on top 3-2. Moreover, he won their last two meetings, which came on a hard surface. The 32-year-old has had to come through qualifying to reach the first round, but sometimes that momentum can help you continue when you reach the main draw.
Gael Monfils, on the other hand, has played okay this year. He did reach the third round of Wimbledon, and he has gone far in a few tournaments. However, I don’t think he’ll have it all his own way, and at the prices, I have to side with Schartzman at 14/5.
Selection: Diego Schartzman (14/5)